The Greek elections result was announced to a morose electorate and jubilant ‘markets’. It is now becoming increasingly evident that horrors without end await the troubled population that is unable to decide on an end however horrible. Medical science teaches that the alternative to amputation is sepsis.

Students of modern history are advised to look beyond the last century into the events of the 18th century, when a ‘shot was heard ’round the world’. The era of royalty ruling by divine right confirmed by organized religion, was drained by internecine warfare and withered when challenged first by enraged colonists facing austerity and then by ‘sans culottes’ determined to end their miserable existence. The message was driven home in the Napoleonic wars that toppled royal houses and redrew the map of the world. Tsunami-like the ripples of these conflicts destroyed centuries-old empires and led to victorious  independence struggles in the Balkans, South America, the Middle-East, Asia, the Indian sub-continent, Africa and most recently Southeast Asia.

Fittingly, Tsou-en Lai, late foreign minister of the People’s Republic of China , when asked in the 1960′s on his opinion of the outcomes of the French revolution, responded that it is ‘too soon to tell’.

In our time, we are witnessing the implosion of a world order cobbled by Britain, Russia and the United States,  amidst  the ruins of huge global 20th century conflicts. Time proceeds relentlessly in its cyclical rhythms of  regeneration and destruction and now we once again enter a winter with Britain no longer great ,  Russia no longer soviet nor a union, and the United States experiencing the ravages of age and dissolute behavior.

Greece, the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’ has registered its message addressed to the proponents of  misguided financial ‘globalization’. The rumblings of Mount Vesuvius and the smoke plume from its  peak were long ignored by many in Pompeii …

Lacon Lykos

06.17.2012

watch?v=lAIAOccJAEQ&feature=player_embedded

Τι σημαίνει να είσαι κύριος;

Το να’χης δούλους…

http://goldsilver.com/video/break-up-the-euro-and-restore-human-dignity-nigel-farge/

http://www.lifo.gr/mag/features/3197

Μια εξαιρετική ανάλυση του Ιάσωνα Μανωλόπουλου για το ‘Χρέος’ και την κρίση που αντιμετωπίζουμε.

Η θεραπεία πλέον οφθαλμοφανής:

• Εξοστρακισμός
• Επαναδιαπραγμάτευση
• Εξοδος
• Εργασία

http://www.prd.uth.gr/uploads/discussion_papers/2011/uth-prd-dp-2011-01_gr.pdf

Γιατί το πρόβλημα δεν λύνεται με δανεισμό , αλλά μόνο με δύσκολες (και διαρκώς αναβαλλόμενες) θεσμικές αποφάσεις.

Κατά τα όλλα, ‘ότι αρχίζει ωραία τελειώνει με πόνο…’

20 Μαιου 1941

Τότε αλεξιπτωτιστές …σήμερα χρηματιστές

Η ιστορία της ανθρωπότητας σημαδεύεται από ορόσημα καθοριστικά στην πορεία της ανα τους αιώνες.

Μοίρα και αποστολή του Ελληνισμού να πραγματώνει τα ασύλληπτα, να δημιουργεί ορόσημα και να ανοίγει ελπιδοφόρους δρόμους για την ανθρωπότητα , στο πρότυπο του Προμηθέα.

Παράδειγμα σ΄αυτή την προσφορά η λεβεντογέννα Κρήτη, λίκνο της Ελλαδικής παρουσίας στην λεκάνη της Μεσογείου. Ο Μίνωας δημιουργός του πρώτου πολεμικού ναυτικού για την διασφάλιση του Αιγαίου. Μάνα του Μίνωα η Ευρώπη. Τεύκρος με Κρήτες αποίκους ο θεμελιωτής της Τροίας. Ιδομενέας ο βασιλιάς των Κρητών στην Ελληνική εκστρατεία των Ομηρικών επών.

Σταθερή η προσφορά της Κρήτης στην διατήρηση της Ελληνικής ταυτότητας ανά τους αιώνες, γνωρίζοντας Ρωμαίους , Βυζαντινούς, Αραβες, Φράγκους, Ενετούς, και Τούρκους. Σημαδιακή η συμμετοχή της Κρήτης σε όλους τους Νεοελληνικούς αγώνες για την διασφάλιση του εθνικού χώρου.

Χρυσή σελίδα σ’αυτή την προσφορά πρός το Εθνος η σημερινή γιορτή.

Η γιορτή που μας θυμίζει την γιγαντομαχία του Β’ Παγκοσμίου Πολέμου και μας παραδειγματίζει για τον Τρίτο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο που βρίσκεται σε εξέλιξη.

20 Μαιου 1941 – Unternehmen Merkur – Επιχείρηση Ερμής – επίθεση εναντίον της Κρήτης από την αήττητη Wehrmacht στην πρώτη από αέρος επιχείρηση εισβολής της ιστορίας. 14000 αλεξιπτωτιστές, 15000 ορεινοί καταδρομείς, 280 βομβαρδιστικά, 150 Stukas, 180 πολεμικά αεροσκάφη, 500 μεταγωγικά, 80 ανεμόπλοια, 2700 Ιταλοί Διεύθυνση της επιχείρησης είχε ο στρατηγός των αλεξιπτωτιστών Kurt Student.

Αντιμέτωποι βρέθηκαν με 11000 Ελληνες των ενόπλων δυνάμεων, 15000 Βρεταννούς, 7000 Αυσραλούς, και 7000 Νεοζηλανδούς. Στις Ελληνικές δυνάμεις συμπεριλαμβάνοντο τμήματα της 5ης, 12ης και 20ης Μεραρχίας του Ελληνικού Στρατού, δυνάμεις χωροφυλακής, και η φρουρά της πόλης του Ηρακλείου. Διοικητής ο Νεοζηλανδός στρατηγός Bernard Freyberg.

Στην αναμέτρηση κρίσιμο ρόλο έπαιξαν και οι Βρεταννικές υπηρεσίες πληροφοριών με χρησιμοποίηση για πρώτη φορά αποκρυπτογραφημένων μηνυμάτων που μετέδιδαν οι Γερμανοί με την υποτιθέμενα απόλυτα ασφαλή συσκευή Enigma.

Ακόμη πιό κρίσιμο ρόλο όμως στην υπεράσπιση της Κρήτης έπαιξε η άνευ προηγουμένου (και επομένου) συμμετοχή του πληθυσμού της νήσου, ανδρες , γυναίκες, παιδιά, κλήρος στις μάχες.

Στις 8 πμ σαν σήμερα, πριν 71 χρόνια, οι επίλεκτοι των Γερμανικών δυνάμεων πέφτουν με αλεξίπωτα πάνω από το αεροδρόμιο Maleme κοντά στα Χανιά. Διαταγή του Fuehrer να χρησιμοποιηθούν οι αεροπορία και δυνάμεις αερομεταφερόμενες και οι επιχειρήσεις στην Κρήτη να λήξουν οπωσδήποτε πριν το τέλος του μήνα για να μήν καθυστερήση η σχεδιαζόμενη επιχείρηση Barbarossa ενατίον της Σοβιετικής Ενωσης. Στις 4:15 το απόγευμα ρίψεις αλεξιπτωτιστών στο Ρέθυμνο και στις 5:30 μμ στο Ηράκλειο.

Οι μάχες λυσσώδεις με συμμετοχή όλου του πληθυσμού. Μάχες στην ξηρά και στην θάλασσα με προσπάθειες απόβασης των αντίπαλων δυνάμεων.

Από τις 28 – 31 Μαιου με πράξεις αυτοθυσίας παραγματοποείται η αποχώρηση του Βασιλέα Γεωργίου και πολλών συμμαχικών δυνάμεων από τα νότια παράλια της Κρήτης για την Βρεταννοκρατουμενη Αίγυπτο.

10 μέρες φρικτής αναμέτρησης για να επικρατήση ο κατακτητής. Τελικός απολογισμός 7000 Γερμανοί νεκροί και τραυματίες, 370 Γερμανικά αεροσκάφη κατεστραμμένα. Luftlandesschlacht um Kreta χαράσσεται στην γερμανική συνείδηση με πύρινα γράμματα.

Για τους Συμμάχους 7000 νεκροί και τραυματίες και 17000 αιχμάλωτοι. Τουλάχιστον 1250 Κρητικοί πολίτες νεκροί και αρχή αντιποίνων.

Πύρρειος Νίκη για τον Αξονα η κατάληψη της νήσου. Νέα Σαλαμίνα η Κρήτη σε συμπλήρωση των νεων Θερμοπυλών της Πίνδου. Και όπως περιγράφει τα τεχθέντα ο Αισχύλος στους ‘Πέρσες’, έτσι 2000 χρόνια αργότερα ένας νέος επίδοξος κοσμοκράτορας τριγυρνάει άγρυπνος στις κολοσσιαίες αίθουσες της ‘αυτοκρατορικής’ Καγκελλαρίας του Νέου Ραιχ στο Βερολίνο με Ερινύες να φαντάζουν και τα λόγια του Δαρείου να ηχούν ‘

ΦΑΝΤΑΣΜΑ:
Να μην εκστρατεύσετε στην Ελλάδα. Ποτέ. Μήτε κι αν είναι ο στρατός μεγαλύτερος. Η ίδια η γη τους τους βοηθάει τους Έλληνες.

ΧΟΡΟΣ:
Με ποιο τρόπο; Πως;

ΦΑΝΤΑΣΜΑ:
Η πείνα διώχνει τους περίσσιους.

ΧΟΡΟΣ:
Θα στείλουμε στρατό διαλεχτό.

ΦΑΝΤΑΣΜΑ:
Δε θα γυρίσει ούτε αυτός που απόμεινε.

ΧΟΡΟΣ:
Τι ; …

ΦΑΝΤΑΣΜΑ:
Αν πιστέψει κανείς στις θείες μαντείες. Αν δει ό,τι έγινε… Θα καταλάβει ότι λίγοι θα φτάσουν. … γραφτό τους είναι να πάθουν τα έσχατα. Να πληρώσουν την Ύβρη τους. Που εκστράτευσαν στην Ελλάδα. Και ανέβησαν. Σύλησαν. Έκαψαν ναούς. Βωμούς και αγάλματα θεών απ’ το βάθρο τους τα γκρέμισαν, πέτρες τα έκαναν στο χώμα. Γι’ αυτό έπαθαν όσα έπαθαν.
Και άλλα θα πάθουν. Το βάθος της συμφοράς ανεβαίνει. Δε φάνηκε ακόμα. Στο αίμα θα κολυμπήσει η γη …από λόγχες Δωριέων. Στοίβες νεκρών άφωνες θα δείχνουν στους αιώνες να μη περνά το μέτρο η έπαρση του θνητού. Όταν ανθίζει η έπαρση καρπίζει στάχυ θυμού. Συμφορά εσοδεύει. Αυτή είναι η πληρωμή.

Και να θυμάστε …την Ελλάδα. Να μην καταφρονεί κανένας όσα έχει. Να μη ποθεί τα ξένα και σκορπά τους σωρούς των δικών του. Τη μεγάλη περηφάνεια τσακίζει βαρύς δικαιοκρίτης ο Δίας. … Ότι τυφλώνει το θράσος και καταστρέφει το μυαλό. …

Εγώ πάω πάλι στο σκοτάδι.

Has The Greek Bank Run Started?

By Tyler Durden

Created 05/15/2012 – 11:36

While the long-term decline in bank deposits over the past 3 years has been well documented both on Zero Hedge and elsewhere, it is the most recent, acute post-election phase that has not gotten much coverage. Minutes ago Bloomberg sent out a notice that things in Greece may be on the verge of the final collapse. From Bloomberg: “Anxious Greeks have withdrawn as much as 700 million euros ($893 million) from the nation’s banks since the inconclusive May 6 election, President Karolos Papoulias told party leaders yesterday, according to a transcript of the meeting posted on the presidency’s website today. Papoulias said he got the information from the head of the Bank of Greece, the central bank, George Provopoulos, according to the transcript.” While this was likely a negotiation talking point to facilitate the formation of the government, the reality as we now know is that there has been NO government formed, which now means that the bank run will only get worse. Needless to say, a Greek banking system which is now virtually shut out of any external funding except for the ELA, where it has a few billions euros in access left, will be unable to deal with hundreds of millions in deposit outflows.

This may be the beginning of the end for Greece, just as Buiter and later JPM warned over the weekend.

And courtesy of Russian_market, here is a picture of the first Greek ATM lines:

The history of Greece after the Balkan Wars and the Catastrophe of Asia Minor is that of a massive ongoing power struggle between populist/republican forces seeking wealth redistribution and a conservative/royalist faction defending a status quo with origins in the Ottoman era, subsequently legitimized by the dominant world powers of each generation.

This struggle has expressed itself in constitutional crises, military coups, periods of dictatorship , and outright civil war. The period after the military dictatorship 1967-1973 was particularly crucial for Greece, as it harbored the threat of major social unrest fueled by longstanding grievances and egregious societal inequities. The need for a manageable populist alternative was evident after the initial euphoria generated by regime change waned.

In 1980, an American-trained economist, with a republican pedigree swept to power promising ‘change’. The center-left forces provided a comfortable majority, but their initial enthusiasm and electoral commitment could only be sustained with tangible gains. After social ‘window-dressing’ with belated recognition of the National Resistance and acceptance of the spoken dialect for official transactions had been effected, societal restructuring became mandatory to accommodate cadres and scores of prospective voters. This was achieved by dramatically expanding the public sector at all levels and exhibiting largesse in previously neglected rural areas. The funds to finance this enterprise were derived from credit arrangements, thus avoiding the need for wealth redistribution through efficient taxation or other means.

By the year 2000, it was obvious that existing financial strategies could not sustain the social contract indefinitely, making it necessary to obtain access to larger pools of funds through ‘innovative’ accounting. Goldman Sachs expertise streamlined the Greek application for admittance to the Eurozone, thus sealing the fate of the nation in a perpetual credit cycle. Funds flowed into public coffers earmarked for grandiose infrastructure projects, only to sustain a non-viable social construct on suspended animation. Interestingly, Greek banking institutions did not fall prey to the temptation of casino economics and remained fiscally conservative, but were strong-armed nonetheless to lend the government, through bond purchases, in its financial free fall.
And now, as the emperors of global finance are revealed to be naked, the game is up. Margin calls are terminated and creditors have to own up to their debts in an accelerated fashion. The social contract artificially sustained is fractured and the postponed issues of wealth redistribution are once again emerging amidst the fragmented electorate. The confrontation of forces in this developing cataclysm promises a modern Salamis.

Living a virtual lifestyle on a credit card is as productive and as promising as experiencing success on a cocaine ‘high’. Individuals can decide on their path of self-destruction with a measure of selfish impunity, governments do not have this option.

The one-eyed morons tasked with leading the blind in the Greek rendition of the Pied Piper saga are now facing their ‘Goetterdaemerung’. Powerless, their charges watch them age and shrivel in real time as the Furies and Valkyries promise torment unending. Even in their decaying state they croak their mantra ‘credit…credit…credit’ oblivious to the imminent cataclysm.

Ex machina deus would be the Greek playwright’s solution. The Greek nation must do better, severing the link to addictive excess and selecting the difficult but secure path of moderation in financial independence.

Lacon Lykos

Are megabanks too big to manage?

By Jennifer Liberto @CNNMoney May 11, 2012: 2:44 PM E

JPMorgan Chase’s blunder raises questions about whether the big banks are just too big.

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) — JPMorgan Chase’s $2 billion hedging blunder is adding fuel to those who think the megabanks are just too big.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) is in no danger of failing, thanks to much larger capital cushions mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act. But its mistake could have outsized repercussions in the global financial system, due to the sheer size of megabanks and the inter-connectedness of the global financial system.On Friday, stocks of all the big banks – including Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) — were lower, as the JPMorgan Chase news undermined investor confidence in other Wall Street firms. U.K. regulators are reportedly looking into trades that transpired at the bank’s London office.

“It does make you wonder — this is one of the best managed banks in the country. What’s going on at these other institutions?” said Sheila Bair, former chief of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., in an interview with CNN’s Your Money to air Saturday. “Are they just too big to manage, even with very good managers?”

Economist Simon Johnson said the JPMorgan Chase episode highlights why U.S. regulators need to shrink big banks. He said the banks are so big and their trades are so complicated that even the Federal Reserve had no idea when it completed recent stress tests that JPMorgan could be facing these kinds of losses.

“Such banks have become too large and complex for management to control what is going on,” Johnson wrote on his blog, Baseline Scenario. “The regulators also have no idea about what is going on. Attempts to oversee these banks in a sophisticated and nuanced way are not working.”

Shrinking the Wall Street banks is also a controversial goal of FDIC director Thomas Hoenig.

In a Senate Banking hearing on Wednesday, Hoenig said that while he’s not in favor of an “arbitrary size limit” on the big banks, he wants to go back to a system in which commercial banks’ banking activities are separated from Wall Street trades. He’d prohibit even market-making at banks, which is currently allowed by the Volcker Rule.

“Let’s take these high-risk activities and move them out in to the market,” Hoenig said.

JPMorgan’s big loss: Explain it to me

Jaret Seiberg, a Washington policy analyst at Guggenheim Securities, said the JPMorgan blunder increases the possibility that some in Congress may try to separate commercial banking from trading operations. But he still thinks it’s unlikely Congress actually goes through with it.

On Friday, liberal lawmakers who have maintained the megabanks are too big issued statements saying the JP Morgan losses illustrate why the banks should be broken up entirely.

“The debacle at JPMorgan Chase reaffirms my view that the largest six banks in this country, including JPMorgan Chase, which have assets equivalent to two-thirds of our GDP, must be broken up,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent. 

 

————————————————————————————————————————-

———————————————————————————————————

U.S. Banks Tally Their Exposure to Europe’s Debt Maelstrom

John Kolesidis/ReutersDemonstrators in Athens. Banks are disclosing more of their exposure to Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

After a hurricane, homeowners check nervously to see if their insurance will cover all of the damage. With the European financial crisis still threatening a trail of defaults, United States banks are betting that their insurance is going to pay out.

Five large American banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have more than $80 billion of exposure to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece, the most economically stressed nations in the euro currency zone, according to a New York Times analysis of the banks’ financial disclosures.

• have made extensive use of a type of financial insurance, the credit-default swap, to help them offset any losses that might occur if defaults swamped the five troubled nations.

Using these swaps, along with other measures, the five banks have cut their theoretical exposure to the troubled countries by $30 billion, to $50 billion. The analysis also shows thatCitigroup has the greatest percentage of its exposure potentially protected, at 47 percent, while Bank of America has bought the least protection, at 12 percent.

Justin Lane/European Pressphoto AgencyCitigroup, which runs Citibank, is confident it can collect on credit-default swaps.

On Sunday, the Greek government appeared close to a deal with the majority of its creditors that would lead to big write-downs in the value of its debt. But even a deal could spawn a series of events that could lead to payouts on Greek credit-default swaps. While the Greek swaps would probably be paid, they represent only part of the $602 billion of swaps that have been written on the five troubled countries.

Credit-default swaps have functioned well for big bankruptcies, but they were also a big source of systemic weakness in 2008, when the American International Group nearly collapsed because it could not make payments on its side of its swaps contracts. Some market participants now doubt they would work properly during periods of great financial instability.

 

“The likelihood of actually getting paid out from owning a credit-default swap would be troubling to me if this were my hedge against a systemic shock — especially in a political environment unfriendly to more Wall Street bailouts,” Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer at the hedge fund Universa Investments, said through a spokesman.

Since the A.I.G. debacle, regulators have been working to ensure financial firms will actually be able to make, or collect, payments on their swaps when markets are failing. While regulators have the power to get a detailed look at banks’ swaps positions, investors have struggled to get a solid grasp of their exposures from the banks’ financial filings.

Analyzing banks’ Europe-related swaps can be like a walk through a fun house, where appearances are distorted and you do not know what is around the corner. The degree of disclosure among the five banks differs greatly, and not all of them give a complete snapshot of their exposures and offsetting bets.

But that could change in February, when the banks release 2011 annual reports. The Securities and Exchange Commission this month requested that banks now provide fuller and more consistent presentations of their European positions, saying disclosures have lacked transparency, and might therefore be inadequate for investors. Bank representatives last week said they would comply with the guidance.

One upshot of the new disclosure might be that certain banks’ European numbers could suddenly look substantially bigger, since the S.E.C. is effectively asking banks to unbundle key exposures in their financial statements so outsiders can see how big they are before offsetting items.

“If you do see a jump in gross exposures, there will be new questions for management,” said Mike Mayo, a bank analyst with the brokerage CLSA.

Citigroup said it had $20.2 billion of exposure to the five stressed peripheral countries at the end of last year. The bank said it had $9.6 billion of “credit protection” on those countries, and had set aside $4.2 billion of collateral that would also offset its total exposure.

Collecting on the swaps would mean Citigroup’s counterparties having the money in stressed times to make a full payment. John Gerspach, Citigroup’s chief financial officer, said this month that the bank was highly confident it could collect, adding that the entities it bought protection from were “very high quality.”

Citigroup’s disclosed gross exposure to the five countries, including $7.4 billion in loans that have not actually been drawn, was $28.9 billion at the end of last year. Its net number, after credit-default swaps and collateral, was $15.1 billion. Put another way, Citigroup has “hedged” 47 percent of its disclosed exposure to the five countries.

Bank of America appears to have hedged the least, with only 12 percent of its stated $14.4 billion exposure offset with credit-default protection, according to the analysis. “We carefully manage our risk while still supporting our clients in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain,” said a Bank of America spokesman, Jerome F. Dubrowski.

Like other firms, Bank of America has cut its European exposure by aggressively selling assets and cutting back on lending since 2009, when the region’s debt began to look like a serious problem. The bank’s exposure to the five countries is down by 44 percent since 2009, Mr. Dubrowski said. Also important, the new S.E.C. disclosure request could reveal the extent to which a bank has bought credit protection from banks based in the stressed European countries.

The fear is that a bank, say, in Italy, would be unable to pay out on its swaps if the country’s government went into default. Morgan Stanley implicitly recognizes that in its European disclosures. Alone among the five banks, it broke out the amount of default protection it had bought from banks in the five peripheral countries, about $1.43 billion.

Credit-default swaps can be dangerous because they have the ability to hit one side of the trade with a demand for an overwhelmingly large payout if a default occurs. Right now, it costs a bank $401,000 a year to insure $10 million of Italian government debt for five years, according to Markit, a data provider. If Italy took a serious turn for the worse, and its government debt seemed in real danger of default, that swap price would rapidly spike higher, as happened with Greece.

If that occurred, the bank that sold the protection might then have to post a lot of cash to ensure it would make good on the swap. Large cash calls like that might drain some banks of liquid assets, causing systemic stress.

If an important part of the financial system overhaul were in place by now, there may be fewer questions about whether banks would be able to meet cash calls in stressed times. The change involves directing most swaps trades to clearinghouses, whose job is to ensure that the money flows underlying a trade are made. Clearinghouses would standardize collateral payments across the default swap market, and they might demand higher amounts of collateral than banks currently demand from each other.

Recognizing this weakness in the derivatives market, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 leading industrialized nations said in 2009 that they wanted to have clearing in place for all standardized derivatives by the end of 2012.

Yet, as of June, only 9.4 percent of the $29.6 trillion credit-default swap market is centrally cleared, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Notably, the credit-default swaps that pay out if a European government defaults appear to have been held back from central clearing by the British regulator, the Financial Services Authority, which declined to comment on why it had not yet approved these swaps.

As things stand, banks may still be able to avoid using their default swaps, except, perhaps, those on Greece. That is because the European Central Bank has taken stronger actions to prevent the crisis from worsening, like making $620 billion of cheap loans to European banks in December. But the central bank’s moves do little to actually reduce European government debt levels.

Until those come down, the banks are betting on their hedges, imperfect as they may be.